Nai Pickard

Robust Recovery in 2010 Will Just Return U.S. to Middling Economy,

Strong, steady economic growth over the next two years will just return the U.S. economy to a pre-2008 level, giving us back what we needlessly lost due to government-induced panic and poor lending practices, according to a new white paper from NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman.  (Dr. Linneman is also Professor of Real Estate, Finance and Public Policy at the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, and Principal, Linneman Associates). The white paper examines the overall outlook for the job market and provides a forecast for the next three years.

“The key for the real estate sector is job growth, as a recovery without jobs does not fill buildings,” Dr. Linneman noted.  “We anticipate that the next three years will continue to see average job growth of 250,000 jobs per month, for a three-year job increase of at least 9 million jobs by early 2013.”

“That is robust job growth, but it is important to remember that our forecast would leave us with almost the same number of jobs in mid-2013 as existed at the beginning of September 2008,” said Dr. Linneman. “Even with a robust recovery adding 9 million jobs over the next three years, we will still have an anemic unemployment rate of 7%. Hence, we expect a robust rebound to mediocrity.”

A Robust Rebound to Mediocrity?, NAI Global’s white paper, reviews payroll history and trends, providing an economist’s view of the recovery’s impact on the jobs market today and tomorrow. This latest white paper follows Capital Markets Show First Signs of Recovery, Dr. Linneman’s treatise on the impact of how a rise and recovery in asset prices will lead to investors becoming more active, how capital markets will start to show recovery and the impact on the commercial real estate industry. NAI Global’s white papers and research resources are available for free download at www.naiglobal.com under Publications/Articles & White Papers.